I want to start out by saying I still do not think its time to start panic buying! However, I do think it's prudent that folks put the possibility of it in the future on the radar. Before I get into my thoughts, I want to point out that I am just a private vendor....all I can offer are my honest observations as a participant in the kratom industry. I have no more information than anyone else on how this will play out in society, so please frame everything I share with that in mind. Everyone is responsible for their own well-being and your response to this incident should reflect as such. Basically.... dont blame me for whatever actions you decide to take when it comes to being prepared!
Now - the reason I say is its not time to panic is because right now I dont see an immediate threat to the kratom supply. In talking with many partners in Indonesia, the supply lines are still moving. The reason I share that it should be on the radar is that we have seen in other parts of the world that things could change sharply within a span of a couple of weeks.
Up until the past few days ago, I hadn't been overly concerned with how the kratom industry would be affected in the near-term. I certainly expected that at some point we would experience some minor disruptions, but not to the point where I thought folks would not be able to access kratom. In my mind, everything we have recently seen occur in parts of China just didnt correlate with what we could expect here. In the very recent past, we have seen similarly serious outbreaks occur in China like MERS, SARS,etc... all of which never materialized into anything to be concerned about in the US. However, it's becoming evident that Covid-19, although far less deadly than MERS, etc..., it is a much greater threat to our society because of how highly transmissible it appears to be.
We have all seen how China is dealing with the virus, and while transmissions have slowed, it is nowhere near becoming under control. China's healthcare system is certainly no match for that of most Western countries, however, China has a very powerful tool to deal with the virus that western countries do not.... and that is an authoritarian form of government. China is able to implement some extremely effective measures that just wouldnt be palatable to freedom-loving societies (like welding apartment building doors closed). Now, these certainly do not result in better care for the citizens in affected areas, but it does bring some measure of protection for the rest of the country as a whole. Why does this matter? Well, I think it demonstrates that countries on a whole will have very little success in ultimately stopping the spread of the disease. It seems that a serious pandemic is inevitable. If an authoritarian government like China cannot stop it - our only hope is that the more advanced healthcare systems of the west could somehow provide a better solution. And then there was Italy....
In the year 2000, the Italian healthcare system was ranked among the best in the world - only second to France (according to the WHO rankings). Now I know many will argue that those rankings do not truly reflect the "best healthcare" because much of those rankings were based on access.... not quality (for example... if you are sick the US is still where you want to be for treatment or major surgeries). I also know that since 2000 there has been a steady decline in their access due to forced austerity (its expensive to have the 2nd best system in the world)- however, they still very much remain a good measure for how a western healthcare system would manage the current crisis. With all of that said, the recent events in Italy have personally given me pause.
It's becoming clearly apparent that no government, no matter how well equipped, is positioned well to prevent the spread of the virus. Right now it appears our only hope is to slow it down as much as possible in hopes of producing a vaccine before it infects everyone. Unfortunately, the reality is that no matter how much you throw at it, producing a vaccine that is human-ready is more than a year away. There is also talk that warm temperatures might slow down the infection rates, but all that really means is that infections will move to the southern hemisphere and return again here in the winter with the rest of the seasonal flus. In other words... we are in for a ride.
With Italy being a western country with similar ideology and general approach to governing (yes I am aware there are differences), I think they are a close example of what fighting the virus might look like here in the US. With that, I think it's a good idea to look towards how things have progressed over there to try and predict how things might look here.
What is very sobering to me is that it was only a little over a month ago when we were reading about a handful of infections in Italy. Fast forward 6 weeks and that number has surpassed 10,000 with 631 deaths. What we have to understand is that the virus spreads exponentially... its about to get crazy. If a few people can cause the infection of over 10,000 people in a span of 6 weeks, what is that going to look like in another 6 weeks? Its a simple calculation, and its terrifying.
Now, those few grew to 10,000 because there were little efforts being doen to prevent the spread (similarly to the way we are currently in the US). The alarm bells have now sounded in Italy, and steps are being taken to reduce infection rates. However, from what we have seen so far, it doesn't give me a great deal of confidence. Earlier in the week, Italy announced what was considered a drastic measure in ordering a lockdown of Northern Italy (which is the area that was most affected). The decision to only lock down parts of Italy may have been a terrible miscalculation, as it resulted in many "healthy" people fleeing the north in order to avoid being trapped in the "sick zone". Of course the only problem with that is that some of these "healthy people" were not healthy at all and instead just spread the virus to the south and across other parts of Europe. As a result, there are now cases of the virus confirmed in all 20 Italian regions. Italian citizens are ordered to stay at home a seek permission for essential travel. Some families are currently separated, as a result of loved ones being away on travel during the time the lockdown was announced. Mr Conte (the Italian Prime Minister) said of the outbreak: "I have been thinking about the old speeches of [Winston] Churchill - it is our darkest hour, but we will make it". Anytime you are digging up Churchill quotes to reflect the current condition, it's not a good thing.
So one has to wonder, are we currently here in the US where Italy was 6 weeks ago? Should we expect a similar fate 4-6 weeks from now? Who knows, but I think it would be foolish to assume we will somehow completely come out of this unscathed. While I am one to stay away from the twitter world, I came across a really informative "tweet thread" (sorry if that is not what it's called) that using math, showed how our healthcare system would handle what Italy is currently experiencing. It certainly didnt give me warm fuzzies. If you care to read through it, you can find it in the link below:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/12 ... 0459003909
Now, what does all of this mean for the kratom industry? Well, I have no idea. I can, however, share with you what I am hearing from other vendors and what I am personally keeping on my radar.
- Right now speaking with Indonesian suppliers, the Indonesian kratom industry is not currently affected. Indonesia has not been hard hit by the virus, everything right now is operating as normal. My guess is that if the industry begins to be impacted it will at a regional level first, giving vendors a short window to react before everything is halted. I want to emphasize that is a guess... who really knows what will happen.
- In speaking with other vendors of various vendor groups - right now people are discussing the difficulties they are experiencing with acquiring business supplies. For whatever reason, there are delays in receiving goods that are non-pandemic related such as packaging materials, etc.. The more obvious issues involve being able to acquire the personal protection equipment needed to properly package kratom (sanitation masks, etc...).
- My personal biggest concern is the unknown... specifically what disruptions may occur in the international transport of goods. To be completely honest I, as a vendor, am feeling shy about making big orders right now. We are supposed to be doing a sizable harvest at the end of March and I am sitting here right now wondering if I should go ahead and pay for it. The reality is that it can sometimes take anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months to receive an international shipment kratom shipment. With how fast things are changing I am personally hesitant to invest in large shipments for fear that I may never receive them. Something that vendors are keenly aware of in the kratom industry is that kratom shipments have a tendency to just "disappear" into thin air. When packages disappear, there is little recourse for you unless you know the right people or have some seriously bullet-proof relationships (vendors are always given "delivery guarantees" but those usually amount to nothing more than words in an email.... good luck complaining to customer service about it
). This is all a real cost of doing business in the kratom world, and it's a cost that frequently puts vendors out of business. Depending on your situation, losing a really large shipment can cost you the last 3-4 months of profit. If you can imagine the devastation you would experience if suddenly the bank lost the last 6 months of your paychecks and there was nothing you could do about it. The devastation you would experience is the same for vendors, as most of us dont have millions of dollars to just fall back on and say "oh well, it was worth a try". For that reason, I think many vendors, especially the smaller vendors, might begin importing very cautiously and asking themselves if maybe right now is a good time to take a break. Coincidentally, for reasons not relating to Covid-19, TFH loaded up on product over the past several months. We are sitting insanely HEAVY on inventory, so we are not under any real pressure to re-supply for a loooong time. With that said, I am very interested in hearing from other vendors on this. Are you going to go ahead and re-supply as usual? - Another thing crossing my mind is mail delivery. I read through the CDC's disaster planning it which touches on the need to protect the operation of our government's "critical infrastructure". Technically, the USPS falls into that category, but I have to wonder exactly what that means. Is it possible that they limit all non-essential mail/package deliveries? Of all of the possibilities I listed, I think this is probably one of the later stages that could be relevant. I dont think we are anywhere near this kind of scenario, but what in the world do I know? Again, if there is anyone with some "inside information" on what that looks like I would love to hear from you. Maybe postal workers have some insights they could share?
To summarize - I dont think now is the time for panic buying, but I do think the situation warrants everyone to keep their pulse on things.
Ultimately everyone has to make that decision for themselves and I dont blame or judge anyone who wants to protect their interests now. Last night they just confirmed the first case in North Texas, and I have to admit it triggered me to make a run to the grocery store to get some essentials. Unfortunately for me, it was a wasted trip... the shelves for anything "virus prep-related" were empty. Now I realize that if I went up there tomorrow they would probably be re-stocked, but I think that feeling of "missing the boat" on getting supplies for my family kind of disturbed me and has inspired me to share here. I care about everyone in this community and want everyone to play it smart. Again, I dont think now is the time to start stressing your bank account with kratom purchases, but if we start to see a sudden and sharp increase in US Covid-19 cases, as a consumer I would consider possibly putting a kg or two away in case we run into "our darkest hour".
Just dont go crazy as I did in 2013 and end up with an entire "kratom closet".
Good ole' American Capitalism right? Oh but we can't have terrible "Socialism", No! Can't have the Government doing anything to help people... 30 million with NO health insurance? 
"
